This study aimed to develop a futures-oriented model of green marketing based on indigenous values for ecotourism development in Tabriz and to identify the key drivers shaping its future through the integration of new public sports games. This qualitative futures research employed a combination of Grounded Theory, MICMAC cross-impact analysis, and binary morphological analysis. Key indicators influencing indigenous value-based green marketing in ecotourism development were first extracted through a systematic review of the literature. Subsequently, the influence and dependence of variables were assessed using a cross-impact matrix to identify critical drivers. Based on four major drivers—climate change, sanctions and currency fluctuations, government support, and ecological carrying capacity—future spaces were constructed and compatible scenarios for the 2035 horizon were developed. Inferential findings indicated that the system exhibits a relatively stable structure, with climate change, sanctions and currency fluctuations, government support, and ecological carrying capacity emerging as the most influential drivers. Morphological analysis generated 16 possible future spaces and resulted in four compatible scenarios: Resilient Green Tabriz, Reviving Tabriz, Sustainable Local Tabriz, and Climate Winter Tabriz. The results demonstrated that indigenous values, including respect for nature and traditional hospitality, constitute a strong source of competitive differentiation in green marketing. Furthermore, new public sports games function as a core ecotourism product in favorable scenarios, fostering sustainable development, community engagement, and tourist attraction, whereas their role becomes highly restricted or discontinued under pessimistic future conditions. The future of ecotourism in Tabriz is strongly shaped by the interaction of climatic, economic, institutional, and environmental factors. Indigenous value-based green marketing can serve as an effective strategy for enhancing ecotourism resilience, strengthening destination competitiveness, and addressing future challenges. Institutional support, ecological capacity management, and environmentally responsible public sports activities are essential for achieving desirable future scenarios.