System Dynamics–Based Modeling of Risk in Construction Projects with a Focus on Schedule Delay Phenomena
Keywords:
construction delay, delay risk, time–cost–quality, DEMATEL, Delphi method, system dynamicsAbstract
This study aimed to develop a system dynamics–based structural framework for identifying, validating, and analyzing the causal relationships among risk factors contributing to delays in construction projects. This study adopted a mixed and multi-stage analytical design. First, a systematic review of Persian and English literature was conducted, and qualitative content analysis was applied to extract delay-related factors and organize them into conceptual codes and thematic clusters. Second, a three-round Delphi process was implemented with academic and professional experts in construction management to refine and validate the extracted variables. The content validity of the instrument was assessed using the content validity ratio and content validity index. Finally, the DEMATEL technique was used to examine the intensity and direction of causal relationships among the validated clusters and to determine the influential and dependent roles of variables within the delay-generation system. The Delphi results confirmed 31 final variables, of which 20 reached full consensus and 11 reached moderate consensus. Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was 0.35, indicating a moderate-to-favorable and statistically significant level of agreement among experts (χ²=189, df=30, p<0.001). All final items exceeded the acceptable CVR threshold, and the CVI values for all items were above 0.79. The DEMATEL results indicated that the financial–time dynamics cluster functioned as the main causal driver of the system, the cost–quality dynamics cluster operated as an intermediary mechanism transmitting and redistributing disruptions, and the time–quality dynamics cluster represented the domain in which delay-related consequences accumulated and became observable. Delay in construction projects is not an isolated or temporary operational failure but a structural instability produced by the dynamic interaction of time, cost, quality, and risk; therefore, effective delay control requires integrated management of financial flows, quality mechanisms, organizational learning, and project feedback loops.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Ehsan Kaviani (Author); Heirsh Soltanpanah; Amir Asad Nasri Zar , Mohammad Sediq Sabeti (Author)
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